In anticipation of COP24 (Katowice, 2-14 Dec. 2018) the UNEP released its Emissions Gap Report [1] and the study result is… gloomy. If we keep heading in the current direction we are on the road to a +3°C world for 2100 when the latest IPCC report is already warning us of the consequences of a +1.5°C world [2].

Reading through the UNEP report I can’t help but wonder: despite all the warnings and recommendations provided by the scientific community why are we not there yet? It should be a no brainer: the link between anthropogenic emissions and climate change and its consequences has been established and it will only get worse unless we act promptly. So delaying taking actions sounds irrational, it is just like a smoker who postpones quitting. They know about the risks of smoking, know about the benefits of quitting, yet they keep doing it.

Digging a bit into this analogy I was surprised to see the many similarities between these two global challenges. See how the history repeats itself in the identification, communication and perception of risks arising from a habit we didn’t know had negative impact.

Tobacco consumption

Greenhouse gas emission

Scientific reports and warnings – when suspicions need scientific objectivity

In the early 1900s, scientists investigate the impacts of tobacco consumption on human beings.  In 1910, a report by George Louis Meylan recommends teenagers to not smoke [3], but it is still a one of its kind warning. It is only in the late 1940s-1960s that studies are more and more consistent demonstrating a high correlation between tobacco consumption and lung cancer risks [5].

As early as 1890, a correlation between CO2 concentration and change in temperature is identified. In the 1950s-1960s scarce studies look at the link between man-generated CO2 and global warming [6]. In the 1980s concerns keep growing, the IPCC is funded in 1988 to provide a scientific and objective view on climate change. Their first report (and the five that followed) all confirmed the reality of global warming and the urgency of tackling it.

Awareness arises – delay between initial scientific findings and general public awareness

In 1961 NGOs such as the American Cancer Society sent letters to President Kennedy to ask the government to investigate on the risks of smoking [4] and in the 1970s local movements target smoking bans in work places, theatres etc.

In the 1990s, with the creation of the IPCC and the first Conference of Parties (COP), awareness starts to spread. From the 2000s onwards, NGOs dedicated to climate change are created. Within the last 10 years, marches have been organized worldwide to urge governments to take actions and mitigate climate change.

First-hand experience of impact – awareness enables the identification of the cause and its consequences

It is unfortunately not uncommon to have a family member or friend who has:

  • Shortness of breath as a result of smoking terrible coughs
  • Tobacco induced cancer
  • Or even death from smoking

There are an increasing number of extreme weather events:

  • Every recent year has been in the top 10 of the warmest year on record (7 of the warmest 10 years from 1880 to date were in the last 10 years) [7],
  • Great Barrier Reef is bleaching [8]
  • Arctic browning [9]…

Denial – reactions from ‘it’s exaggerated’ to ‘it’s not true’ as a defense mechanism

The smokers themselves will tend to ignore the warnings and continue smoking as they don’t want to break with this habit. This behavior has also been heavily supported by the tobacco industry itself with the ‘Frank Statement to Cigarette Smokers’ in 1954 and by their regular and repeated statements in the press as late as recent as 1998 [5] denying or minimizing the effects of tobacco.

At an individual level, some people will deny the existence of human-induced global warming or will consider that the others are responsible for fixing it. Climate skeptics are comforted in their beliefs by statements such as the recent ones from President Trump: 2018 Californian wildfires are caused by ‘mismanagement of the forests’ rather than climate change [10] or him simply disregarding evidences produced by his own government [11].

 

But there is a silver lining behind each cloud and this story is not exempt of it. Regarding tobacco: it took time and convincing, but eventually the percentage of smokers dropped. In 2000, 43% of men worldwide were smokers, dropping to 34% in 2015 and women smokers dropped from 11% to 6% during the same period [12].

For climate change results are not there yet: 2017 showed that GHG emissions have not peaked and the current Nationally Determined Contributions (unconditional and conditional) are not enough to reach our mitigation target. However, the main contributors have been identified (fossil fuel extraction and combustion, cement production, other industrial processes and land use change). Scientists have many recommendations on how to address them (technical, financial, legal…) and there is still time to curb the trajectory. What is needed is a ‘wake-up call’ or an ‘eye-opener’, the same one that leads the smoker to quit.

Could some tactics be successfully applied to tackle both challenges? Approaches certainly show similarities:

Tobacco consumption

Greenhouse Gas emission

Shocking campaign – communication to pick the interest of the general audience

Pictures of unhealthy lungs, rotten teeth, toes, prematurely born babies… are some of the many visuals you can see today on cigarette packs in many countries across the world.

One of the images most commonly associated with the impact of global warming is polar bears either terribly emaciated if not dead or adrift, on a tiny patch of floating ice.

Taxes – imposed by law

In the US, a pack of cigarettes costs $2.98 in 1991, the cost of a pack of cigarettes has risen continuously over the years and in 2017 reached $6.37. This increase in price is corelated with a decrease in consumption. [13]

Polluter pays principle and the CO2 tax have been repeatedly recommended and partially implemented in various countries. To date, the carbon market price and the volume of participants remain too low to make this approach fully successful.

Bans – imposed by law

Cigarettes have been banned from being promoted in the media and its usage has been banned from indoor workplaces, planes, theaters, restaurants, bars… The trend is even to ban it outdoors; no more cigarette with a drink on the terrace or even nearby the door of premises.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) are a family of Greenhouse gas (GHG) with extremely high warming potentials (80 to 12000 times the one of CO2). They are commonly used as refrigerants and their use is highly controlled, phased down or banned in many countries.

Education – transmitting knowledge to empower each of us

The effect of tobacco on health is not debated anymore and is well documented and known.

Schools warn against the risks of smoking and relatives generally communicate the same messages to prevent the younger generation from smoking.

The older generations do not necessarily have a good knowledge on this issue.  Educating them on these topics can be done through many ways but it does require curiosity and the ability to accept change.

At school nowadays, topics dealing with human impact on the environment are embedded in the programs of even the youngest classes.

In our hands – with the knowledge comes the responsibility to take action

We can all take part at our level:

As a non-smoker, it is possible to help by informing, communicating and supporting someone to quit smoking.

As a smoker, declare this cigarette to be the last one and stub it out.

As a citizen: switching to practices with less environmental impact to reduce our footprint, supporting NGOs that will represent our voices in international events, voting for legislations in favor of GHG emissions reduction, sharing your opinion…

As a leader: by listening to the people, by taking decisions that will have benefits long term instead of short term, by adopting the recommendations from the plethora of studies showing how if we act now we can still tackle climate change and by being bold.

 

The trajectory we are heading to is not sustainable and students around the world fear for their future (see zoom Australia below). There is still time but not for more denial, postponement or complacency. On the eve of COP24 I urge the decision makers to finally ditch the bad habits, stub out this last cigarette and ensure our planet doesn’t suffer from a human-inflicted cancer.

 


Zoom on Australia:

At the time of this article 4 news of the top 8 news results for Australia read as follow:

  • Australia’s carbon emissions grow at fastest rate since 2004, The Guardian [a]
  • Australia warns of ‘hotter than normal’ summer raising fire risk, News24 [b]
  • Adani to proceed with scaled-back version of contentious Australian coal mine, New York Times [c]
  • Climate change: Australian students skip school for mass protest, BBC [d]

Mister Prime Minister, we all want our kids to go to school. Thanks to their education and awareness they are marching in Australia’s streets with a simple message: “save our future”. Australia has all the resources to switch from fossil to renewables and meet and exceed its NDCs. Please lead by example and take action to protect your youngest citizens.

We must align our present with their future!

 

30 Nov 2018 – Sophie Hennes

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